Think about it, there really aren’t that many quality starters left on the free agent market and those that are will be looking for long-term deals (Joel Pinero, Jon Garland, etc.).  Then there are the second-tier pitchers (Vicente Padilla, etc.).  That leaves the Big Enigma: Ben Sheets.

Out of baseball since 2008, we really don’t know a lot about how good Sheets is these days and how he’s recovered from his surgery for a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow.  What we do know is that he’s supposedly looking for $10-12 million per year which just isn’t going to happen.  His last year in the majors was 2008 when he started 31 games, going 13-9 with five complete games and 198.1 innings pitched, along with 1 3.09 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.  Not bad, right?  When not hurt, he’s an innings-eater.  Before the need for elbow surgery was discovered, Sheets was on track to sign a two-year deal with the Rangers before the 2009 season.

What we do know is that Ned loves a good late-season deal.  Let’s look back on Orlando Hudson.  At the time, there was a lot of concern about his surgically-repaired wrist and teams were hesitant to give him a multi-year contract.  Ned worked him out very late in the off-season and eventually signed him on to an incentive-based contract for one year, paying him a base salary of $3.38 million plus another $4+ million in incentives.  Not bad, right?  At the time, this contract looked like a steal. 

In the end, Hudson went on to an All-Star year, playing in 149 games (until being benched by Joe Torre in favor of Rafael Belliard), batting .282 with 62 BI, 9 HR, 8 SB and 35 doubles (a career high).  In addition to being named a 2009 All-Star, he also won a Gold Glove for his defensive prowess.  All of this netted him a whopping $7.99 million.  I don’t have a problem with the Dodgers paying for performance, and I appreciate Ned’s business philosophy of focusing on shorter-term details that are tied to pay-for-performance models and incentives that reward the players for delivering while limiting the Club’s financial exposure when a high-degree of risk is involved.

In the end, it will come down to how well Sheets pitches on Tuesday and how much interest there is from other clubs, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Ned try to land Sheets with a Hudson-type of contract structure if he pitches halfway decently, especially given the rumored financial difficulty the Dodgers are currently facing.

Photo Credit: AP/Morry Gash

Now I’m not a true numbers guy, but I’m going to attempt my own financial analysis of the Dodgers’ current situation (feel free to disagree).

First, let’s look at attendance:

Year     Dodgers Attendance       Overall MLB Ranking

2009    3,761,669                               #1

2008    3,730,553                               #3 (Yankees were #1, Mets were #2)

2007    3,857,036                               #2 (Yankees were #1)

2006    3,758,545                                #2 (Yankees were #1)

For the decade as a whole, the Dodgers ranked second in overall attendance with 30,735,479.  Only the Yankees pulled in more fans with 34,061,693.  Not bad!  So it’s safe to say the Dodgers are still consistently pulling the fans through the turnstiles and generating income for the team, even if season ticket prices have been frozen recently.

Now let’s look at payroll.  The Dodgers average payroll for 2006-2008 was $119.57 million, which ranked them fourth in the majors behind the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets.  Their 2008 Opening Day payroll was $118,536,038 (their final payroll in 2008 was $125,864,496).  Their starting payroll in 2009 was $100,458,101.  The average payroll for all MLB clubs decreased by 1.7 percent from 2008 to 2009.  Using the above  numbers, the Dodgers payroll decreased 15.29 percent from Opening Day 2008 to Opening Day 2009.  That’s a big, big difference from 1.7 percent, especially given that the Club was running very strong attendance numbers.

Their 2010 payroll right now stands at roughly $92,791,000 according to Jon Weisman (as of December 17, 2009).  That’s an approximate decrease of 7.7 percent from the Opening Day 2009 payroll.  Things are obviously not moving in the right direction financially, and Phil Gurnee at True Blue LA does a great job of summarizing the financial dilemmas currently facing Dodger ownership.

Given all of this, are the Dodgers moves this off-season really a surprise?  First, they didn’t offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson.  Either way you look at this, those draft picks and/or pro salaries would cost money.  Then they trade Juan Pierre for two young pitchers, saving more money in the process.  Next, Ned Colletti signed utility infielder Jamey Carroll for two years and $4 million.  They offered a handful of minor league contracts to older guys hoping to catch on during Spring Training.  Now we have the rumored George Sherrill for Aaron Hurang trade.  Now this makes me really, really nervous from a baseball perspective, but financially, it seems to fit the pattern, right?

However, hope still exisits.  By this point last year, Ned had signed Casey Blake (December 9th) and Rafael Furcal (December 18), but didn’t sign other prominent free agents until well after the first of the year, including Randy Wolf (February 6), Orlando Hudson (February 21) and Manny Ramirez (March 4).

I’m going to ask my original question to the Magic 8 Ball again in mid-January.  Ned does like to make value deals late in the off-season, so I’m hoping for a new answer…something  like “Signs point to yes.”

From the Dodgers’ press release:

“Juan always put the Dodgers first, even when it wasn’t in his personal best interest,” said Colletti. “In this day, that is a rare attribute. When he and I spoke at the end of the season, we agreed that if an opportunity presented itself in which his chance to play would be enhanced, we would pursue it and that’s what we’ve done. He deserved the chance to play more.”

During his three seasons with Los Angeles , Pierre batted .294 with a .339 on-base percentage and 134 stolen bases in 173 attempts. Last season, his 10^th in the Majors, Pierre hit .308 (117-for-380) with a .365 on-base percentage in 145 games.

And as all Dodger fans will remember, Juan’s ability to not just fill in but excel when Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games was amazing.  What was even more amazing was how he returned silently to the bench when Ramirez returned to the lineup.  Still, it was time for Juan to go…he never would have been a legitimate starter for the Dodgers, and the fourth outfielder spot really should go to an up-and-comer like Jason Repko or Xavier Paul.

As for the trade itself, I thought Ned did a great job.  Not only did he save over $8 million over the next two years, but he aquired two righties: John Ely and John Link.  Ely is 23 and last year had a 14-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 27 starts with Double-A Birmingham.  He also led the Southern League in strikeouts (125) and was tied for the lead in victories…not bad!

The 25 year-old Link had 13 saves for Triple-A Charlotte  last year with a 3.99 ERA in 48 relief appearances.

Time will tell if these guys pan out (the Chicago mediaand bloggers are pretty dubious on this, given the White Sox inability to develop much in the way of pitching from their minor league system).  Still, Ned likes these guys and told “Mason & Ireland” on 710 ESPN that he’s received some calls from other teams asking about the pitchers.

Photo credit: Yahoo News

There’s nothing like a three game series against the hated San Francisco Giants to get the blood going, and Vincente Padilla (3-0, 2.01) starts the series off against Jonathan Sanchez (6-12, 4.16).  According to the Giants media notes, Sanchez has been pitching well as of late, going 2-1 with a 1.16 ERA, holding opponents to a .154 average in his last five starts on the road against the Mets, Phillies, Rockies, Astros and Brewers.  Sanchez also has the lowest ERA of any pitcher in the NL on the road since August 4th (the next closest is Chris Carpenter with a 1.69 ERA, and Randy Wolf is fourth with an ERA of 1.96).

On another note, Ken Gurnick has a good article on Ned Colletti and his shrewd wheeling and dealing, that has brought George Sherrill, Ronnie Belliard, Vincente Padilla, Jon Garland and Jim Thome to Los Angeles.  From the story:

“Frank McCourt owns the Dodgers and Joe Torre manages them, but this is Ned Colletti’s club. He traded for Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez, he refused to trade away Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, and he signed Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla.

Since the general manager took over four years ago, the only team in the league with more wins is Philadelphia. Colletti inherited a club that finished 20 games below .500, and in four years, the Dodgers are 50 games above .500. Colletti’s best win-loss record of the four seasons will be this year — after trimming the payroll by $20 million.”

Here’s hoping that Ned’s work will finally lead this team back to the World Series.

Photo Credit: Examiner.com

Hudson, who had a wrist injury last season that likely limited his prospects during the off-season, was reported to have been offered $29 million over four years by the Diamondbacks to remain with the franchise. Many have suspected that Hudson turned down this offer partly because he was focused on securing a deal in either New York or Los Angeles before the free agent market disintegrated.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, have exerted extraordinary patience this off-season when chasing free agents. The Manny Ramirez negotiations in particular have shown how the Dodgers have been willing to wait out positions and players in order to stay true to their business philosophy. That philosophy, it would seem, is to focus on shorter-term deals that are tied to pay-for-performance models and incentives that reward players for delivering results while limiting team exposure to longer-term deals.

Such an approach would have been unthinkable a year ago, when teams were more than willing to shell out large, multi-year contracts with lots of up-front money in order to bring a contender to their team. Anyone remember our old friend Andruw Jones? Today, however, the business has changed. Free agents proliferate the market and those that have held out for 2008 money appear about as smart as homeowners who have refused to lower their home prices in response to a deteriorating market.

So the question remains – is Orlando Hudson the face of the “intelligent” player over the next few years? And are the Dodgers ahead of the game by exercising patience in their negotiations with players?

Let’s start with the question of Hudson. By all accounts, he is an intelligent, articulate man whose performance has been stellar. However, the three-time Gold Glove winner and former all-star earned $6.25 million last year with the D-Backs. In addition, Hudson hit a career high .305 last year with eight home runs and 41 RBIs. Why sign for $3.38 million plus another $4mil+ in incentives?
1. Geographic Sensitivity – Hudson was focused on NY and LA. Washington indicated interest, but wasn’t really a factor
2. The market changed, and Hudson knew it- the wrist was a warning sign for teams (go see how many times he had to work out for the teams courting him) and there were too many folks willing to play chicken and see what else they could land for a similar short-term deal. There weren’t many infielders of Hudson’s caliber available, but it was a buyers market.
3. Hudson’s view on money had changed- During the off-season, Hudson went to South Africa on his honeymoon and saw first-hand the impact that poverty was having on people with far less than he had.

In the end, Orlando Hudson got paid to play, and was incentivized to maximize the return to the team. In addition, he can be focused on courting potential suitors for when his contract expires and hope that the macroeconomic situation changes in the meantime. Seems like an intelligent choice when the alternative is waiting out Spring Training on a wing and a prayer.

So one to Question Two: Are the Dodgers ahead of the game in their patience and approach to player negotiations? I say yes. Consider this:
1. The Payroll is down $30mil (give or take) – the Dodgers can expect to expend $90 million or so right now for a team that is (pitching aside) eerily similar in talent to last year.
2. In most cases, the Dodgers have landed the key players they wanted to short-term deals that minimize risk and kept them from overpaying for talent and taking on risk over the long-term (a la Andruw Jones).
3. Will Ohman – The LHP turned down more money in a two-year deal earlier in the off-season from the Braves before signing with the Dodgers. Ohman told the L.A. Times “Initially, there was regret…for me to live at that address with that mind-set wouldn’t have done anything positive for me because there was nothing to foresee there would be a downturn of this magnitude.” Patience enabled the Dodgers to grab Ohman on a one-year minor league deal to see if he can play a role in the organization and was able to leverage his desire to be with a team prior to the start of the season to lock him down.

Now, Orlando Hudson (and arguably even Will Ohman) are not your typicall ballplayers who let their agents dictate their business affairs to a fault. Granted, both players overestimated the free agent market and paid for it, but both signed with a team that will be a contender in a weak NL West division and are not tied to low-paying multi-year contracts. The Dodgers get two solid players that are incentivized to perform this year both to maximize their current year earnings and the prospects for a fat, multi-year contract next offseason (should the macroeconomic environment improve).

To me, Orlando Hudson and the Dodgers represent the New Business of Baseball – a business I hope other players and teams embrace if they hope to survive and possibly even florish in today’s environment.

Some of the most impressive things about the facility include how they’ve managed to keep many of the quirky traditions from Vero Beach, while also giving the coaches, players, staff and fans everything they’ve dreamed of, from state-of-the art video facilities, to a professional locker r00m to having 18 different beers available for fans to choose from. 

“It’s [Camelback Ranch] more about what the Dodgers should be,” said Vice President of Public Relations Josh Rawitch (and fellow blogger from Inside the Dodgers). 

Again, there’s way too much to cover off on now, but safe to say, this is truly a jewel in the desert and the McCourts deserve a lot of credit for pulling this off so quickly.

Additional highlights of the trip included meeting Hall of Famers Don Newcome and broadcaster Jaime Jarrin, chatting with Charley Steiner and sitting down for a good hour and fifteen minutes with general managers Ned Colletti.  We learned a tremendous amount about the thought that goes into every baseball decision the club makes, and we look forward to sharing these insights with you throughout the season.

Again, more to come, but we wanted to say thanks to Josh for organizing such a fantastic experience!

On a related note, Blue Notes had an interesting post relating to comments from Steve Henson at Yahoo! Sports on the Padres’ asking price for Jake Peavy:

The Dodgers would be long shots because the Padres are loathe to help their intra-divisional neighbors to the north. It would take Clayton Kershaw or Jonathan Broxton, plus DeWitt and Ethier, just to pique the Padres’ interest.

JUST TO PIQUE THEIR INTEREST!!! Whatever…could you seriously imagine playing the Pad’s and seeing Kershaw on the mound with DeWitt and Eithier behind him?  Unbelievable.

My take is that this is a smart move by Ned for several reasons: one, this is a negotiation. We all know a five or six-year deal for Manny makes absolutely no sense for a NL team. Where’s he going to hit when his knees break down? At 33, Manny’s no spring chicken! Two, the team has been burned by long-term contracts in the past. Does Darren Dreifort’s infamous five-year, $55 million contract in 2000 ring any bells? Personally, I’d take Manny for three years at A-Rod money. He proved a lot to me during his short stint in LA, and the effect he had on the players both on and off the field was undeniable.

Plus, Ned has shown that he likes short-term contracts while in LA, and it probably kept him from getting fired this off-season. Could you imagine if the Andruw Jones and Jason Schmidt deals were for 4+ years??

I’m sure we’ll now see Scott Boras start talking about mythical offers from “unnamed clubs” in an effort to get Ned to bid against himself, but I think we’re long past the Boras shenanigans of old working in 2008 (God, at least I hope we are).

Your move, Manny…

Finally!  On Saturday morning, the Dodgers pulled the trigger and landed 3B Casey Blake from the Indians for a pair of lower-tier minor leaguers giving them a solid bat at one of the positions where one was desperately needed: third base.  He also gives the Dodgers a ton of flexibility, playing first base as well as in the outfield when needed.

Let’s first talk about Blake’s numbers: he’s hitting .289, 11 HR, 58 RBI.  Nice.  Sure, he’s a free agent after this season, but there’s no reason to think that Casey can’t re-sign with the Dodgers who will be looking for a replacement for Raffy Furcal.  Plus, this guy plays hard and the Dodgers need gamers.  I bet he and Jeff Kent are going to get along famously.

Plus the guy is a clutch hitter, hitting .398 with runners in scoring position (something the Dodgers most certainly are not this year).  If you want to get as psyched as we are about this trade, check out this article in yesterday’s Cleveland Plain Dealer: “The Mighty Casey: Blake Maintains Pace as Tribe’s Best in Clutch in ‘08″

This year, the Tribe’s versatile third baseman entered Friday’s series opener with Minnesota hitting .402 with men in scoring position, .326 with runners on second or third with two out and .600 with the bases loaded. But he is hard-pressed to explain it.

“I’m not doing anything different. … I tried to keep the same approach [as 2007], and that’s why it’s so weird,” said Blake, who is hitting .287 (92-for-321) with 11 homers and 58 RBI. “It’s one of those things. I just try to hit the ball hard somewhere.”

Blake said he hopes that fans appreciate his blue-collar work ethic and said it is a privilege to roll up his sleeves everyday and go to work.

“I’m not real flashy … I don’t believe in that,” Blake said. “I show up every day ready to play hard. … I’ve had some tough times here [with the fans] but I’m glad they’re embracing me. It’s nice to have them on my side.”

In return, the Indians will receive Carlos Santana, a catcher in the Class A California League where he has 14 homers and is hitting .323.  Also acquired in the deal is AAA pitcher Jon Meloan who is 5-10, but is also a strikeout machine, racking up 335 in 262 innings.

Sure the Dodgers gave up some potential major league talent in this deal, but the NL West is ripe for the picking and the Dodgers managed to strike first in a big way while not giving up the farm in the process.  Nice job Ned, but you’re not done yet!

GM CHATTER: The Mariners probably will wait until the offseason before deciding what to do about their general manager’s job. For now, Pelekoudas is the interim GM, and he will be one of the candidates down the line.

Club president Chuck Armstrong isn’t saying who else he might be thinking about, but the speculation around baseball is getting up to speed.

The Los Angeles Times reported that while the Mariners haven’t called to ask about any of the potential Dodgers candidates, Los Angeles GM Ned Colletti said he would grant permission if asked.

The Dodgers personnel include Kim Ng, an assistant GM for the past seven seasons who is seen as the most highly qualified woman when GM jobs are talked of, and Logan White, who has run the L.A. scouting department the past seven years.

“They’re both worthy,” Colletti told the Times.

Ng is believed to be interested in the job and White, who played in the Seattle minor league system, told the Times he would be interested in discussing the job.

Losing either Ng or White would be really bad news for the Dodgers organization.  Ng is known as a shrewd negotiator (she handles many of the club’s arbitration cases) and we all know White’s credentials with the copious amounts of young talent currently in the farm system.

Frank McCourt, now is the time to act.  If Ned is your man, so be it.  But don’t be naive enough to think that the club could afford to lose either of these two All-Star front office execs.  Do what you need to do to lock these two up for the foreseeable future.